Is alt data betting on prediction markets?
While offering a rich source of new data, legal uncertainties remain
The concept of prediction markets long predates the sites where they now primarily unfold – Polymarket and its rival Kalshi – which were each launched less than seven years ago. In fact, there’s evidence that bets occurred on the outcome of papal elections as early as the 1500s. More modern examples include the Iowa Electronic Markets, launched by the University of Iowa in 1988, which initially
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