Scenario analysis
Turbocharging tech for next-level risk analytics
As regulatory demands and market conditions constantly change, investing in robust risk analytics is becoming not only a business necessity, but an essential compliance requirement
Regulator warns against ‘happy endings’ for op risk wargames
Risk Live: Bankers say third parties should also be at the table when simulating crisis scenarios
Execution & process errors: banks try to get beyond blunderdome
Mistakes mean more data for reporting, models and scenarios. But do banks learn from them?
On cyber risk, regionals have no appetite for disruption
Smaller lenders fear outages and other IT bungles, as do regulators. So, what are they doing about it?
Apac banks put trust in pre-trade
Amid tougher trading conditions, Apac banks are making greater use of pre‑trade analytics to inform their strategies and reduce risk. But how successful are these tools?
Energy credit risk benefits from next-generation technology
Advances in energy credit risk technology are improving the accuracy and efficiency of the credit risk function, says credit risk technology expert
Sizing cyber: banks split on who owns and measures hack threats
G-Sibs split on risk modelling and management for IT disruption and infosec
Fed’s climate stress test whips up storm for banks
Long-awaited US climate risk exercise puts tough pressure on banks’ data and models
Smarter data: steering a course in volatile markets
Fixed income markets are entering a new era of turbulence. This paper outlines the challenges facing asset managers in this macro environment and how to overcome them through high-quality data and cutting-edge analytical tools that uncover alpha and…
Wanted: radical ideas for inflation modelling
Hedge funds echo Mervyn King’s calls for a new approach to inflation modelling post-2022 crisis
FSB: third of climate stress tests not tackling physical risk
Six jurisdictions conducted exercises only for transition risk
Ukraine nuclear scenarios: black enough for you?
A nuclear strike on Ukraine would open the door to the pit; our readers guessed how markets would fare, with surprising results
Scenario design for macrofinancial stress testing
The author presents an empirical approach to scenario design for selecting a stress scenario for international macrofinancial variables and compares this approach with a historical scenario approach.
US midterm election scenarios: a fright after Halloween
Republican control of Congress could deal “a sharp shock to markets”, analysis suggests
Barclays confronts ‘implausible’ macro risks
Talking Heads 2022: Bank is reaping rewards of sticking with its trading businesses, says macro head Lublinsky
How climate change may impact operational risk
This paper uses the ten laws of operational risk along with taxonomies for inadequacies or failures and their impacts, and it also draws parallels with past crises, in order to make systematic predictions.
Peacetime stress‑testing applications
Leo Sadovy, analytics consultant, risk, finance and banking, and solution lead for SAS‘s scenario analysis and stress-testing solution, sets out the key role of strong decision-making and the importance of being able to innovate and respond to adverse…
Shaping the future of risk and finance with analytics and integrated technology
This webinar explores how to enhance business planning activities, while accelerating regulatory demands with limited resources amid a need to derive greater value from the analytic lifecycle
Top 10 op risks 2022: geopolitical risk takes centre stage
Ukraine invasion, western sanctions and Russian response seen driving big rise in cyber and supply chain risks
Europe’s banks brace for Russia-backed cyber retaliation
Beefed-up sanctions on Russia’s largest banks spark IT security alert; 100s of computers brought down in Ukraine
Severe but plausible – or not?
In this paper, the authors apply a measure of statistical unusualness, called the Mahalanobis distance, to assess the plausibility of the scenarios used in the Federal Reserve's stress tests.